"The frequency illusion naturally makes us more aware of what's top of mind—if we're looking for bad things happening to us, we'll start to notice them more frequently."
is an example of the better-known and formulated Availability cognitive bias from Kahneman and Tversky
"Availability bias is a cognitive shortcut where people overestimate the importance, probability, or frequency of events based on how easily examples or information come to mind—especially those that are recent, vivid, or emotionally charged"
See Wikipedia for more.
I really like this post and found your work and links very helpful for a project I am working on.
Absolutely. Thanks. I almost included that one, but as it's so cold that it's only useful to people in the Antarctic at the last moment, I deleted it. Probably should have kept it!
Re the technique of identifying a Douglas Fir by the structure of its cone: I’m a retired Park Ranger. Among my many duties was giving interpretive presentations to kids via nature walks, campfire programs, and school presentations. While working in a well forested park with thousands of Douglas Firs I would bring up the subject of how one can ID a DF. Picking up a cone I would show the numerous bracts that make up the cone’s structure . I pointed out that the individual bracts had a consistent structure: that of three pointed scales joined under a larger bract. Two of the scales were alike and were on either side of the central one. The central one is longer and very thin, resembling a tail. It takes little imagination to see that the three combine to form the shape of the back half of a mouse hiding for cover under the larger fourth bract.
This
"The frequency illusion naturally makes us more aware of what's top of mind—if we're looking for bad things happening to us, we'll start to notice them more frequently."
is an example of the better-known and formulated Availability cognitive bias from Kahneman and Tversky
"Availability bias is a cognitive shortcut where people overestimate the importance, probability, or frequency of events based on how easily examples or information come to mind—especially those that are recent, vivid, or emotionally charged"
See Wikipedia for more.
I really like this post and found your work and links very helpful for a project I am working on.
Ed
Hey Ed, thanks for sharing. Spot on. Kahneman and Tversky did so much interesting work.
I actually did a sketch on the Availability Heuristic before where I referenced their work: https://sketchplanations.com/the-availability-heuristic-and-bias
I went to add a link to the Frequency Illusion sketch, and I found it was already there =)
Any other good topics you find I haven't covered, let me know!
Good luck with your project.
Have you come accross Murphy's Law of Manuals (by Robert E. Horn in How High can it Fly?)
«If it isn't already out of Date,
it will become out of Date
the Moment befor you look
something up in it.»
https://openlibrary.org/authors/OL248538A/Robert_E._Horn
I hadn't seen that one. That's great. Thanks for sharing =)
Speaking of F to C benchmarks, -40 is -40.
Absolutely. Thanks. I almost included that one, but as it's so cold that it's only useful to people in the Antarctic at the last moment, I deleted it. Probably should have kept it!
Re the technique of identifying a Douglas Fir by the structure of its cone: I’m a retired Park Ranger. Among my many duties was giving interpretive presentations to kids via nature walks, campfire programs, and school presentations. While working in a well forested park with thousands of Douglas Firs I would bring up the subject of how one can ID a DF. Picking up a cone I would show the numerous bracts that make up the cone’s structure . I pointed out that the individual bracts had a consistent structure: that of three pointed scales joined under a larger bract. Two of the scales were alike and were on either side of the central one. The central one is longer and very thin, resembling a tail. It takes little imagination to see that the three combine to form the shape of the back half of a mouse hiding for cover under the larger fourth bract.
Oh, how the kids loved that!
Also, when I was younger, I dreamed of being a Park Ranger. Still do to be honest =)
Hi Bob, I love that story. If you don't mind, I'd love to add it to the description so others can enjoy it:
https://sketchplanations.com/identify-a-douglas-fir
Love the exasperated look of the ‘little’ people. ;-)
Ha! Yes, exasperation, and perhaps bafflement, was exactly what I was going for =)